KIMI — FIFA
WC 2026 SIMULATOR

interactive well designed animated website of a A Monte Carlo simulator for the 2026 World Cup. Users set the parameters, hit "Run 10,000 Simulations," and watch the bracket fill itself in thousands of times in seconds. The output isn't one prediction — it's a probability distribution. "Argentina wins the title in 18.3% of simulations. France in 14.7%. Spain in 12.1%." The magic is letting users play god: tweak the variables, re-run, and see how the probabilities shift. It turns a static bracket into a sandbox. How the simulation engine works Each match is a probabilistic event driven by a few inputs: Base team strength — Elo rating, FIFA ranking, or a hybrid. Elo is better because it updates based on results and accounts for opponent quality. Match-specific modifiers — applied on top of the base rating to shift the win probability for that one game. Random draw — once you have win/draw/loss probabilities, roll the dice and advance the winner. Run that across all 104 matches, record who wins the trophy, who reaches each round. Do it 10,000 times. Aggregate. The adjustable variables (this is the fun part) Home advantage A slider for each host nation: 0 (neutral) up to +100 Elo points (massive boost). Default ~+50. Lets users ask: "What if Mexico's home crowd is electric?" or "What if USA chokes under pressure?" Weather impact The 2026 tournament is in June-July across radically different climates: humid Houston, hot Mexico City altitude, mild Vancouver, scorching Dallas. Slider for "heat penalty" applied to teams from cooler climates playing in hot venues. Real and underexplored — Qatar 2022 was moved to winter for this reason. Travel fatigue Unique to this World Cup because of the geography. Teams flying Mexico City → Vancouver → Miami get hammered. Track each team's cumulative travel distance and apply a fatigue debuff that compounds. Slider controls how punishing it is. Underdog factor / variance A "chaos slider" that increases the randomness in match outcomes. Low chaos = chalk wins, favorites always advance. High chaos = upsets everywhere. Lets users simulate "what if this is a wild tournament?" Key player availability Toggle injuries on/off for star players. "What if Mbappé gets injured in the group stage?" Reduces that team's Elo by 50-100 points for the rest of the run. Referee bias (cheeky bonus) A slider that subtly favors home nations or big footballing countries. Half-joke, half-real conversation starter. The output — where the virality lives Probability heat maps A grid: rows are teams, columns are tournament stages (Group → R32 → R16 → QF → SF → Final → Champion). Each cell shaded by probability. Argentina's "Champion" cell at 18% glows dark green. Saudi Arabia's "Champion" cell is near-white. Instantly readable, screenshot-friendly. The bracket itself Show one "median outcome" bracket — the most statistically likely path. Then a slider to scroll through alternate timelines: "Show me a simulation where Belgium wins" or "Show me a Brazil vs Germany final." Per-match win probability Hover any fixture, see the % each team won across all 10,000 sims, plus the most common scoreline. "Cinderella tracker" Highlights the underdog runs in your simulation set. "In 3.2% of simulations, Cape Verde reaches the quarterfinals." People love this. "Group of Death" detector Automatically identifies which group has the most upsets and tightest margins across simulations.